Doubling down - but not in MLB!

The record has stood since 1931, but for the 2^nd straight year there is a player making a run to surpass the 67 doubles stroked by Earl Webb.  Last year Joey Votto (Reds)  was on a pace to break both the NL and the MLB record for doubles in a season before his season was interrupted by injury.  This year it is Baltimore O’s 3B Manny Machado who is challenging that 82 year old total.  Through games of 6/30 Machado had banged out 38 two baggers – a pace that, if maintained, will surpass 70 for the 1^st time in MLB history.

There is something else going on with doubles that seems to have flown under the radar of most fans and commentators and that is that the once rarified level of 50 doubles in a season has now become a much more common threshold of achievement.

The early 20^th century was, of course, known as the deadball era and home runs were few and far between.  League leading totals rarely topped 20 – never 30 – and as late as 1918 Babe Ruth lead MLB with 11 homers.    The 1920’s and 30’s were known for their explosive offenses.  Thirty two  times the 50 level was reached, with the 60 mark surpassed 6 times.  The last players to reach at least 60 doubles in a season were Ducky Medwick and Charlie Gehringer in 1936.  Medwick’s total of 64 is the highest season total in NL history.

We see that a different pattern emerged throughout the 1940’s and holding until 1993; the relative scarcity of 50 or more doubles in a season.  The years 1940-93 saw only 13 such seasons.  By comparison during that time there were 10 seasons where 50 HR’s or more were hit.    In fact, from 1940-1969 there were only 8 such seasons of 50 2B’s – matching the 8 seasons where 50 or more HR’s were hit.  The 1960’s saw 3 seasons of 50 or more (including Roger Maris’ 61 in 61 season), but only 1 season where 50 doubles were stroked (Frank Robinson with 51 in 1962).   It would not be until 1977 when 50 doubles level was reached again (Hal McRae with 54).  Pete Rose followed with 51 in 1978.   The 1980’s had 2 seasons (Don Mattingly with 54 in 1986 and Wade Boggs with 51 in 1989.  John Olerud hit 54 for the BlueJays in 1993 – then things started to get interesting.

The strike shortened season of 1994 was a huge disappointment for fans of doubles as three players (Chuck Knoblauch, Matt Williams and Larry Walker) were all over 40 when the season was cancelled approximately 2/3 through the season.  Projected to a full season that would have given us THREE players reaching the 60 doubles threshold.  The real story began in 1995 as 3 players made the 50 mark.  Then 2 more in 1996.  Another in 1997… and at least 1 player reaching 50 doubles all the way through the 2009 season; 15 consecutive years encompassing 38 individual seasons.  If you are keeping score, that is 50 seasons from 1887-1993 and 38 seasons from 1995-2009.   After 2 relatively quiet seasons, 3 players reached 50 in 2012.   This season there are 7 players, in addition to Machado, who are on pace to reach 50 doubles.

The increase in individual seasons reaching the 50 doubles plateau is indicative of how the game has changed; both HR’s and 2B’s, as a percentage of total hits, are at all time highs.  Since the start of the 21^st century, as batting averages have drifted downward, the % of extra base hits has gone up.    Nowadays approximately 1 hit in 3 is for extra bases.

This chart breaks down the 50 or more seasons by decade.  Please note there were zero seasons of 50 or more doubles during the 1900-09 decade.  The 3 listed were achieved during the 1890’s.

There have been 20 seasons where a player had at least 55 doubles and 7 of those seasons have happened since 1999. 

50 and above
decade	2B's	HR's
0's	3	0
10's	2	0
20's	12	4
30's	20	4
40's	5	3
50's	2	2
60's	1	3
70's	2	1
80's	2	0
1990-1993	1	1
1995-1999	9	11
00's	29	12
2010-2012	3	1
total	91	42